Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction

"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning th...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Tetlock, Philip E. 1954- (Author), Gardner, Dan, 1968- (Author)
Language:English
Edition:First edition.
Subjects:
Summary:"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--Provided by publisher.
Physical Description:340 pages : illustrations ; 21 cm
Bibliography:Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
Published: New York : Crown Publishers, [2015]
ISBN:9780804136693
0804136696
9780804136716
0804136718
LEADER 04228cam a2200445 i 4500
001 mig00001552788
005 20191026165642.0
008 150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 |a  2015007310 
019 |a 921932489 
020 |a 9780804136693  |q (hardcover) 
020 |a 0804136696  |q (hardcover) 
020 |z 9780804136709  |q (ebook) 
020 |a 9780804136716  |q (paperback) 
020 |a 0804136718  |q (paperback) 
035 |a (OCoLC)ocn898909721 
035 |a 787346 
035 0 0 |a 787346 
040 |a DLC  |b eng  |e rda  |c DLC  |d YDXCP  |d BTCTA  |d BDX  |d OCLCF  |d ON8  |d TUU  |d CDX  |d IK2  |d UAF  |d ILI  |d MLY  |d OQX  |d KBC  |d OCLCO  |d YUS  |d OVY  |d ITD  |d OCLCQ  |d OCLCO  |d RB0  |d BEDGE 
042 |a pcc 
049 |a VZSA 
050 0 0 |a HB3730  |b .T47 2015 
082 0 0 |a 303.49  |2 23 
100 1 |a Tetlock, Philip E.  |q (Philip Eyrikson),  |d 1954-  |e author. 
245 1 0 |a Superforecasting :  |b the art and science of prediction /  |c Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. 
250 |a First edition. 
264 1 |a New York :  |b Crown Publishers,  |c [2015] 
300 |a 340 pages :  |b illustrations ;  |c 21 cm 
336 |a text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a unmediated  |b n  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a volume  |b nc  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--Provided by publisher. 
504 |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index. 
505 0 |a An optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters. 
650 0 |a Economic forecasting. 
650 0 |a Forecasting. 
700 1 |a Gardner, Dan,  |d 1968-  |e author. 
994 |a C0  |b VZS 
999 f f |i 945bf80d-a485-4b1d-be7a-845581d39fb8  |s ed7ed479-858a-4e75-a0a8-07f3451ac53b  |t 0 
952 f f |a Skidmore College  |b Main  |c  Lucy Scribner Library  |d 2nd floor  |t 0  |e HB3730 .T47 2015  |h Library of Congress classification  |i physical  |m 33048007359706  |n 1